Monday, September 4, 2017

Analysis of North Korea's Nuclear Weapons, September 2017


Copyright 2017 by Michael H. Maggelet

4 September 2017

 

  I was wondering how long it would take North Korea to publish photographs of their claimed thermonuclear warhead, and was surprised at the press release of 3 September 2017, and nuclear test soon after. According to some estimates, the yield was approximately 120-150 kilotons.

  While I can’t comment on technical features of their warheads, it’s obvious that the fission warhead displayed in 2015 with an approximate diameter of 30 inches (76.2 cm) is a production device, and very likely uses manual insertion of nuclear components. The Defense Intelligence Agency stated on March 11, 2011 that the DPRK could deliver several plutonium based warheads.



North Korean fission implosion warhead, possible manual insertion design.


  I sincerely doubt the DPRK’s implosion warheads are one point safe, and thus present a safety problem when fully assembled for strike. “One point safe” is defined in US criteria as producing a nuclear yield less than a four pounds TNT equivalent when the high explosive sphere is initiated at any point, or by one detonator. A declassified Strategic Air Command safety study estimated that the accidental detonation of the HE on a solid capsule weapon (like Fat Man, or the early fission bombs fully assembled for a combat drop) had a fifteen percent chance of producing a 40 ton nuclear contribution. [1] 
  Modern US weapons, using sealed pits of hollow shells of active material, are inherently one point safe. [2]
  An unassembled open pit weapon, with the capsule stored in a storage container, is safe from accidental nuclear detonation.



  DPRK press release on the thermonuclear weapons progress, 9 March 2016.



  The thermonuclear warhead, below, obviously shows a reduced scale primary and thermonuclear secondary (and other features I won’t discuss), and in my opinion DPRK scientists received technical assistance from outside sources and friendly countries. Thus, given the advancements in N. Korean military hardware in the missile and nuclear fields, DPRK claims must be taken seriously (along with threats of EMP attacks via exoatmospheric nuclear bursts).

 

  That being said, while North Korea continues to threaten their neighbors and the US with nuclear annihilation, this is nothing new, and those of us who grew up during the Cold War were only six minutes away from Soviet SLBM’s, not to mention tactical rockets and missiles, and nuclear artillery at overseas locations. I personally never lost any sleep when I was stationed in Germany in the late '80's and early '90's despite Soviet grandstanding, Stasi trained terrorists, Warsaw Treaty Organization maneuvers, nor incessant propaganda from Pravda, Tass, and East German state media.

   
DPRK state media photo of two stage thermonuclear warhead.




DPRK photo showing firing set/X-unit and aft cap of primary, detonator cabling, and neutron generator.


  North Korea has achieved a threshold in the field of thermonuclear technology, and in years to come the world can only expect the DPRK to produce multi-megaton weapons for strategic use, and small diameter systems to include nuclear artillery, man portable atomic demolitions, and enhanced radiation warheads. 


References-
1. SAC Historical Study 73, Jan-Jun 1958, pp. 78-79. Declassified from Top Secret Restricted Data.  
2. DOE Restricted Data Declassification Decision, pp. 74-75.



The content of this article is the personal opinion of the author.

Contact- mhmaggelet "at" hotmail.com








Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Rebutting the "Fake News" UK Daily Mail Article of 14 September 2016

 Copyright 2017 by Michael H. Maggelet and James C. Oskins


“Arkansas nearly wiped off the map in 1980 when a SOCKET fell down a nuclear missile silo and punctured a fuel tank, sparking a fire.” By Ariel Zilber, UK Daily Mail (14 September 2016 online article).

  The UK Daily Mail, like many other publications, has unfortunately chosen to publish Eric Schlosser’s  anti-nuclear diatribes and falsehoods without verifying the facts. 
 

  Eric Schlosser, a self described “investigative journalist” and anti-nuclear conspiracy theorist, has released a propaganda film on the 1980 Titan II accident which occurred near Damascus, Arkansas.
 
  For starters, it should be noted that Schlosser never submitted a Freedom of Information Act request for the nuclear weapons accident report, nor did he conduct “exhaustive research” as he continually proclaims in interviews (he submitted a total of two FOIA requests, one of which is nothing more than reference documents copied word for word from a Rand safety study). Due to numerous inconsistencies in Schlosser's book and public statements, Mr. Maggelet FOIA'd all the logs going back seven years due to Schlosser's distortions of the historical facts surrounding nuclear weapons in general, and accidents and incidents. He simply took the easy route and contacted Mr. Maggelet asking permission to use information from our book "Broken Arrow, Volume II" a few weeks before his book was published.

  With that in mind, let’s take a look at the intentional distortions, disinformation, and fabrications made by Schlosser and quoted in the Daily Mail online article.
 

1. Claim- “On September 18, 1980, technicians at Titan II missile silo in Damascus, Arkansas, were trying to replace a socket on a missile.”
 
Facts- In actuality, two technicians were handling a heavy socket and breaker bar, in the process of  servicing a valve on the upper stage of the Titan II.
 

2. Claim- “When the socket fell down a 70-foot shaft, it punctured the missile's tank, causing a leakage of chemicals.”
 
Facts- The eight pound socket fell about 66 feet, punctured the first stage skin and propellant tank, and caused leakage of Aerozine 50 (a 50/50 mix of hydrazine and unsymmetrical dimethyl-hydrazine).


3. Claim- “A fire ensued, but, by a stroke of luck, there was no explosion that would have laid waste to much of the state.”
 
Facts- The explosion of liquid propellant occurred eight and a half hours after the socket punctured the missile (there was no initial fire). The explosion of the Titan II certainly did not lay waste to “much of state”, nor would its nuclear warhead have detonated in a nuclear manner (due to numerous safety features and weapon design principles).


4. Claim- “Schlosser reveals that there were about 1,200 of these kinds of accidents from 1950 to 1968.”

Facts- Schlosser's number of 1,200 includes over 1,150 minor reportable incidents that include crushed electrical cables, test set indications, dents on fins exceeding rejection criteria, and minor defects on inert training weapons. More serious incidents, such as "Bent Spears", are detailed in our book "Broken Arrow, Volume II". The fact that such small problems are reported illustrates the care and attention paid to all aspects of the nuclear weapons program.
 

5. Claim-
The United States narrowly avoided a nuclear disaster that threatened to obliterate the entire state of Arkansas, according to a bombshell new book.”
 
Facts- Since an ‘accidental” nor "intentional" nuclear detonation of the W53 on site was not possible due to safety devices, even an intentional 10 megaton detonation (by a Soviet ICBM) would not have obliterated the state of Arkansas. "The Effects of Nuclear Weapons" details weapons effects rather distinctly, not to mention historical test films showing the effects of multi-megaton yield weapons (and observers and aircraft within 30 miles are not incinerated).  According to several nuclear weapons effects computers (and asteroid impact calculators), it would take an asteroid or comet impact equivalent to approximately 2,250 megatons to "incinerate the state of Arkansas".  
 
 
6. Claim- “Command and Control", a book written by renowned investigative journalist Eric Schlosser, details how a maintenance accident in a missile silo buried underneath farmland in Damascus, Arkansas, nearly caused a thermonuclear explosion.”
 
Facts- Schlosser certainly isn’t renowned in the nuclear weapons community due to his numerous lies, and the accident, as previously mentioned, certainly did not nearly cause “a thermonuclear explosion". An accidental nuclear detonation, due to one point design, safety devices, and design features, was not possible. 
 
 
7. Claim- “Schlosser's book, which was made into a documentary directed by Robert Kenner, is all the more shocking since it reveals that accidents of this kind were much more commonplace than initially believed.”
 
Facts- Given the fact that Schlosser is the son in law of Robert Redford, his connections to Leftist activist groups and Robert Kenner aren’t surprising. The US Department of Defense has released information on many (not all, for security reasons) Broken Arrows when they occurred, and published lists in 1968, 1979, 1981, etc., and has aircraft accident reports available for anyone willing to submit the paperwork. One is not surprised by Schlosser’s “shocking” claims of 1,200 “nuclear weapons accidents”.
 

8. Claim- “It was a sign of the compartmentalized secrecy at the time,' Schlosser said. 'The weapons designers who knew there were safety problems didn't know how the weapons were being handled in the field, and the guys who were literally having their lunches sometimes sitting on nuclear weapons smoking cigarettes had no idea there were any safety problems with these weapons.'
Facts- The only compartmentalization involved the access to classified weapon information, not incident and accident information. The weapons labs and Sandia Corporation were notified of every incident and accident, as detailed in message routing and their response to several early accidents (they also worked with AFSWP to issue retrofit orders to replace obsolete or defective components).  As to Schlosser’s claim that weapon designers “didn’t know how the weapons were being handled in the field”, that’s a lie, since AEC custody representatives were on hand during weapon uploads and were the custodians for nuclear capsules at military bases.
  As for his statement that “guys were literally having their lunches sometimes sitting on nuclear weapons smoking cigarettes”, Schlosser again shows his complete ignorance of safety rules and procedures which were ingrained into every nuclear weapons specialist, aviation ordnanceman, load crew member, handler, missileman, torpedoman, and ordnance specialist from day one.   

9. Claim- 'The secrecy made everything more dangerous. The secrecy that was supposed to keep us safe actually endangered us.' "

Facts- What secrecy? Classified incident and accident reports were distributed worldwide to 945 organizations to include the weapons labs, military services, nuclear capable units, not to mention R&D, safety, and military contractors with a legitimate “need to know” (with a Secret Restricted Data clearance). We find it rather comical, if not the height of incompetence, for a retired employee of Sandia to proclaim that he never knew about incident reports kept in a classified tech library only a few minutes walk away.
 
About the authors-

Michael H. Maggelet is a retired USAF nuclear weapons team chief. As a USAF military dependent, he lived in the UK near RAF Chicksands from 1964-1965.  At the USAF nuclear weapons technical school at Lowry AFB, Colorado in 1980, Mike disassembled, tested, and assembled training weapons such as the W25/AIR-2A Genie, W28 warhead, B28FI bomb, B43, B53, B57, B61, W69/AGM-69A Short Range Attack Missile, W62/Mk 12 Reentry Vehicle, munitions handling equipment, and clip-ins. During his career he worked on the SRAM, B43, B57, B61, and B83 in numerous locations to include New Hampshire, New York, and West Germany.
 
James C. Oskins is a USAF retiree, and was a nuclear specialist, nuclear weapons arming and fuzing specialist, and nuclear weapons team chief from 1955-1975. Jim initially worked on nuclear capsules and pits, and maintained the Mark 6 bomb, Mark 15 Mod 2, Mark 17, Mark 21, Mark 28, Mark 36, Mark 39, W39/Snark, W53/Mk 6 RV, Mk 53 bomb, B57, and B61. He had assignments in Maine, Texas, the United Kingdom, Kansas, and Nevada.

Mike and Jim are the authors of several articles and two books on nuclear weapons history and accidents. Their book "Broken Arrow, Volume II, A Disclosure of Significant US, Soviet, and British Nuclear Weapons Incidents and Accidents, 1945-2008" was submitted for a Pulitzer Prize in History in 2010.



For contact, fact checking, and historical consultation, we may be reached at mhmaggelet "at" hotmail.com.

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Anti-Nuclear Hysteria Versus the Historical Facts





Copyright 2014 by Michael H. Maggelet

   With the advent of the internet, the anti-nuclear movement has spurned a whole slew of new conspiracy theories on nuclear weapons accidents. These range from a supposed Broken Arrow involving a B-52 crash near Monticello, Utah, to the purported accident at RAF Greenham Common in 1958, to the W53 at Damascus, Arkansas almost “incinerating the entire state”. In such cases, a review of the aircraft weight and balance sheet, and the declassified accident reports and AEC post mortems shed more light on the bizarre world of the anti-nuclear movement, where political activism, hysteria, and disinformation are key to aping the disarmament agenda. 
  Such is the case of one Eric Schlosser, whose background as an “investigative journalist” includes a book on fast food. Schlosser, among others, has made dozens of ludicrous claims by purporting to uncover “hundreds” of nuclear weapons accidents (which of course, are nothing more than incidents and accidents detailed in two books by Jim Oskins and myself). Schlosser contacted me wishing to use the Director of Nuclear Safety report on the Damascus, Arkansas Titan II accident a few months before his manifesto was published- so much for his claims of “exhaustive research”.
 
 
 

 
  Of course, to the anti-nuclear movement and conspiracy theorists, the facts don’t matter. This is evident in statements by several media anointed “nuclear weapons experts” who wouldn’t know a gun type from a sewer pipe. While Schlosser may be the ranking King of BS (“BullSchloss”), there are others with blogs typing out utter nonsense and “facts” which are intentionally distorted from declassified documents.

  Anti-nuclear activist Hans Kristensen is a Danish researcher who has proclaimed that the B53 bomb was “unsafe”. This is based off a declassified LLNL document which gave dubious “safety ratings” to various weapons. Kristensen contends that the 53 “… did not have Enhanced Nuclear Detonation Safety (ENDS), Insensitive High Explosive (IHE), Fire-Resistant Pit (FRP), Protective Action Link (PAL), or Command Disable (CD).” In fact, the 53 was produced in 1962, years before many of these concepts were implemented- ENDS in 1968, IHE was not required by DOD until 1984, and the 53 did not require a fire resistant pit since the Type 76 pit (U-235) does not present the contamination hazard of plutonium.1  

  PAL wasn’t a requirement for the SAC only B-53 when it was fielded, nor was command disable. All SAC B-52’s required at least three crew members to arm and release weapons using Aircraft Monitoring and Control equipment, and SAC’s B-52’s were maintained on ground alert after January 1968 (the Coded Switch Set was also introduced around 1970). PAL of course means “Permissive Action Link”, not “Protective Action Link”. So much for expertise.

  The 53 system has been involved in three accidents, with one warhead HE and pit melting in a fire at Bunker Hill AFB with minor contamination.  The W53 and B53 were safe, reliable, and exceptionally robust weapon systems. 2

  Douglas Keeney is another individual who takes license with historical fact. For example, he claims that one accident weapon “in Morocco that almost certainly went nuclear if only partially.” 3   He’s made some rather ridiculous statements regarding the lost Tybee Mark 15 Mod 0, including one that a lighting strike on the bomb could result in a nuclear explosion. 4
  Weapons such as the Mk 15 Mod 0, equipped with automatic in-flight insertion mechanisms did NOT fly airborne alert with nuclear capsules in the AIFI- they only sat ground alert. Keeney also used a significant portion of James Oskins recollections as a USAF 332X0 nuclear specialist at Biggs AFB, TX without permission for his book “15 Minutes- General Curtis LeMay and the Countdown to Nuclear Annihilation.”
 


Mark 36 thermonuclear weapon identified in B-47 accident debris by Michael H. Maggelet and James C. Oskins (photo DOD) 

 

  Eric Schlosser’s recent “breaking news” in July 2014 with claims that a Sandia document is “proof” that one of the Mark 39 Mod 2 accident weapons near Faro, North Carolina (12 miles NE of Goldsboro) was “one step away” from detonation comes as no surprise. This is materially false, as the document in question, Sandia Corporation SC 81-61, clearly states that two solenoid safety switches in each of the two weapons were safe, electrically isolated and could not pass an electrical signal to the X-unit (pages 5, 11, 14, and 20). This is reiterated in documents declassified over a decade ago by the Department of Energy (“Official Observer’s Report, Air Force Accident, Goldsboro, North Carolina” by AEC/ALO rep Ross B. Speer). This myth originated from Daniel Ellsberg and has been perpetuated by others with no knowledge of the Mark 39’s sequence of operation (despite the fact such info has been declassified/sanitized and available to serious researchers for over seventeen years).  
  While the process to detonate the Mk 39 Mod 2 is complex, each weapon was individually armed through specific voltage and amperage through the DCU-47/A (T-380) readiness switch (controlled by the pilot), and the T-249 or DCU-9 monitored by the bomb-nav (or other crew member). Charging of X-unit components, to include saturable core transformers and spark gaps, could only take place after the MC-788 Ready/Safe Switch and MC-772 Electrical Arm/Disarm switches had been pre-armed via aircraft power and crew intent. The Mk 39 with an uncharged X-unit cannot be charged via the 12 volt nose impact piezo switch, nor can the piezo voltage bypass the two electrically operated solenoid safety switches in the safe position.
 

 

 

EOD and MMS personnel examine Mk 39 “Bomb 2” at Faro, North Carolina. This weapon was severely damaged on ground impact after falling several thousand feet. The two electrically operated safing switches were both found in a later post mortem to be “SAFE”. The weapon could not have detonated in a nuclear fashion since the high voltage thermal battery was not activated, and the X-unit and numerous other components were not activated nor fired. The bomb’s HE did not detonate and the pit was recovered, along with the full reservoir. The secondary punched through the nose of the weapon and has never been recovered. 

 

  Eric Schlosser’s anti-nuclear bias and political agenda are pretty evident in “independent” radio and Youtube video’s showing his disdain for the military and links to Leftist anti-nuclear organizations. Hardly a scholar, Schlosser has made dozens of ludicrous claims, a few of the most absurd I’ll address below.

Eric Schlosser Myths- “They were trying to do an emergency landing at one of our most top secret important military installations in Greenland which had a secret radar site there, and the pilot was just able to guide the B-52 away from this top secret installation and it crashed. Plutonium was spread all over the Arctic. Those hydrogen bombs could have detonated full scale!” (Jim Axelrod interview with Eric Schlosser on CBS News Online, Youtube, 21 September 2013).

Facts: The construction of Thule Air Base by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and USAF was public knowledge in 1953, and featured in numerous media outlets (“The Big Picture” television report on Thule, “Operation Blue Jay”, 1953, from the National Archives, and dozens of movie reports from Universal Newsreel on Thule AB from 1953 onwards). The BMEWS site was operational on 1 January 1961, and by November 1962 the Soviets had positioned a trawler near Thule with a history of cable cutting. 6

  The B-52G was intentionally flown over Thule where the aircrew bailed out, it then continued to fly and crashed more than 7.5 miles from the base on the sea ice. Danish AEC radiological health surveys prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the Arctic is not heavily
contaminated with plutonium, nor does the dispersed plutonium oxide present a major health hazard to wildlife or the environment. The safety features in the four Mk 28 FI weapons worked as designed, and have proven time and again to be one point nuclear safe (two HE detonations at Palomares in 1966, four weapon HE detonations at Thule in 1968). 7

Mk 28 FI weapons in a clip-in assembly on MHU-7 trailer 

Eric Schlosser Myths- On Goldsboro- “What prevented the detonation was one switch, one safety switch, and a fair amount of good luck, because that safety switch was later found, in some cases, to be defective. And as the plane was breaking apart in mid air, there were so  many wires, there was so much electrical  equipment  in  that  plane,  that  if  one  of  those  wires  had crossed with the arming wire of the bomb, there would have been a full scale nuclear detonation of this hydrogen bomb...”

Facts: In actuality, as previously shown, the Mark 39 had two electrical safety switches. A defective R/S switch would have been detected via the T-249A during any safety status check (and during any post assembly, pre-load, and monitoring checks). I don’t see anything in the FOIA incident reports of “that safety switch” in the Mk 39 Mod 2 being “defective”. 8

   Specific voltage through aircraft monitoring equipment (pilot’s readiness switch and aircrew AMAC), aircraft/bomb cable, specific pins, and wiring in the shielded neoprene cable would have to occur before any rotation of the R/S switch and Electrical Arm/Disarm Switch. Since weapon electrical components are isolated and housed in electrically grounded and potted fiberglass housings, with additional protection by ESD’s, thermal fuses, resistors, etc., stray voltage has not resulted in unintentional charging of the X-unit on a war reserve weapon in DOD custody. 9
 



Eric Schlosser Myths- Schlosser states the Labs were “unaware that nuclear weapons in the 1950’s were being taken out of their bunkers and put on airplanes for ground alerts. They were never consulted about that” (Global Security Newswire, 23 Sep 2013), and “…the secrecy was so intense that the Air Force wasn’t telling the weapons designers problems that they were having in the field.”

Facts- Storage and security was the responsibility of AEC and the military services in the early days, as shown in several AEC/DOD site custody agreements (which also spell out incident/accident reporting). It’s obvious Schlosser and others who argue about “custody disputes” just can’t grasp the subject matter nor comprehend the content of documents such as  “The History of the Custody and Deployment of Nuclear Weapons, 1945-1977”, which has been declassified since 1999. The fact that AEC was aware of incidents and accidents is evident in the routing of messages from AFSWP to AEC, AEC observers present at several early accidents, and the fact that an AEC capsule custodian had to be present with a military capsule technician to open the AEC cap building before and during the “Bombs on Base” program in 1956. Jim Oskins states that AEC reps were also present when aircraft were uploaded.
  Weapons incident reports, and subsequent product improvement reports, are readily available from declassified government archives, and claims that weapons designers were unable to review non-compartmentalized SRD reports (Dull Swords, Bent Spears, and Broken Arrows) is pure nonsense since the classified FC DASA Technical Letter 20-3 reports (obtained by Jim and I via FOIA in 2008) were kept in the FC DASA (DTRA) Tech Library and widely distributed to the military services and AEC complex.
 


Eric Schlosser Myths- Regarding the Titan II accident, “The accident that I wrote about at length could have destroyed the state of Arkansas while Bill Clinton was governor.” (Rolling Stone, 16 September 2013).

Facts- As I previously noted, Schlosser contacted me since he couldn’t FOIA the report in “Broken Arrow, Volume II” for his forthcoming masterpiece. Schlosser goes on to claim in interviews that his “exhaustive research” is “meticulous”, while ignoring the fact that his footnotes are largely derived from previously published books and online sources (not only did he borrow heavily from our Broken Arrow books, but according to one online posting, his “research” into the Titan II is largely derived from “Titan II: History of a Cold War Missile Program” by David Stumpf). Schlosser never did forward a copy of his book as promised.

  The W53 warhead at Damascus was severely damaged after being blasted out of the silo and thrown 500 feet into a ditch (no HE detonation). Since the Mk 6 RV separated from the warhead, all battery power to charge the X-unit was removed.  In addition, the neutron generators were blown off the warhead, and det cables were broken and frayed.  The 53’s X-unit (capacitor discharge type) used a rotary chopper converter which required two independent signals from the arming and fuzing subsystem in the RV; one to start and run the chopper motor and another to supply continuous low power voltage to be transformed to high voltage (which would be chopped, rectified, and stepped up to the necessary voltage). The RV also required two distinct g-force inputs during the launch and reentry phases before the ESD’s could supply power to the warhead. Thus, with the warhead blown out of the RV, no electrical power was available to the warhead. A nuclear detonation at Damascus was not possible.10

  So, there you have it, a brief rebuttal to a collection of innumerable conspiracy theories promoted by individuals with zero experience in the nuclear weapons field, desiring to promote themselves as “nuclear weapons historians” and “scholars”, at the same time making a buck off their new found knowledge and sad lack of expertise.   

References-

 1. “Los Alamos Source Data for B53 Mod 1, Nuclear Explosive Safety Study”  (FOIA’d by Hans Kristensen). One wonders if these people actually read the documents they request. Info on hazardous materials is available from the INWS brief.  

 2. “DOD Narrative Summaries of Accidents Involving US Nuclear Weapons, 1950-80”. The EOD render safe and post mortems are presented in “Broken Arrow, The Declassified History of US Nuclear Weapons Accidents”. The B53 was “ inherently one point safe”, see B53 NESS, p. 73.

 3. “On Point- Lost Nuclear Bombs: A Dangerous Place for Confusion” by L. Douglas Keeney (27 March 2011). http://www.commandposts.com/2011/03/lost-nuclear-bombs-a-dangerous-place-for-confusion/.

 4. “Lost Archives 4: Irretrievably Lost - The search for the Savannah Warhead”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKo647E53BU. An exceedingly poor documentary.

 5. “History of the Mark 39 Warhead” by Sandia Corporation, declassified from SRD, 1997.

 6. By November 1962, the Soviets had positioned a trawler with a history of cable cutting near the BMEWS undersea cable (excerpt from McNamara to Pres. Kennedy, "Strategic Retaliatory Forces, 1964-1968").
 
 7. “History of the Mark 28 Weapon” and “Hydronuclear Experiments” (LA-10902). The 28-0 was restricted from use in the Hound Dog after hydronuclear experiments showed a very slight nuclear contribution (one-thousandths of a pound fission release); it was modified and the safety issue rectified. The 28 Mod 1 warhead used an external neutron generator. Info about Thule health surveys in “Thule Nuclear Weapons Accident Dose Evaluation Report, April 2001” and “Radio-ecological  Investigations”  by  Asker  Ankerborg,  pp.  11-12.  Danish  Atomic  Energy  Commission,  Research  Establishment  Riso, April 1969.

 8. Pre-arming incidents are detailed in “Technical Letter 20-3”, and various NWEF documents Jim Oskins and I obtained via FOIA over seven years ago.   

 9. ibid, see also “Safety of Air Delivered Nuclear Weapons Now in Stockpile”, Fowler (SNL) to Graves (DMA), no date, possibly 1974. Declassified from SRD.

10. “History of the Mark 53 Warhead”, pp. 27-28, and SC 42-41 “A Survey of Nuclear Safety Problems and the Possibility for Increasing Safety in Bombs and Warhead Designs”, p. 30, Feb 1959.  

Michael H. Maggelet is a retired U.S. Air Force nuclear weapons team chief. He has written two books on nuclear weapons accidents with James C. Oskins. While in tech school Mike trained on the early sealed pit weapons to include the W25, B28FI, and the later B53 bomb. He worked on the B43, B57, B61, B83, and AGM-69A SRAM. Mike’s research for the NWTA includes articles on Little Boy and Fat Man, early Soviet nuclear weapons, Warsaw Pact special operations forces, and Soviet nuclear torpedoes.

Mike's Note- I will be posting more material on the antics of anti-nuclear activists (not to mention some US major media outlets) deleting posts by nuclear veterans correcting their poor research, intentionally blocking our posts on their blogs ("awaiting moderation"), and posting material without proper accreditation.  




 
"Anti-Nuclear Hysteria Versus the Historical Facts" Copyright 2014 by Michael H. Maggelet
 

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

How Many Broken Arrows?

Nuclear Weapons Accidents- The Maggelet/Oskins Broken Arrow Blog

by Michael H. Maggelet and James C. Oskins.

 
 Over the past few decades, the Department of Defense has made several changes to the "narrative summaries of nuclear weapons accidents". 
 
  In 1968, DOD released the first list which contained 17 accidents. 
 
  By 1977, the list had changed to 27 accidents.
 
  In 1980, the most recently updated list, the accident tally remained at 32, and did not include the  four Thor launch accidents which occurred at Johnston Island in 1962. At least two of these accidents were released to the media by DOD at the time, and published in Time magazine. Why they weren't included in the accident tally is unknown.
 
  Background on the Johnston Island accidents was declassified by Field Command, Defense Nuclear Agency in 1983, and DOD has declassified films, messages, and other papers on the accidents and cleanup. FC DNA also issued a press release in 1983 which the media ignored (I read about the JI accidents in Chuck Hansen's 1988 book "US Nuclear Weapons, The Secret History"- remember, this is long before the internet as we know it existed, and FOIA material was not readily accessible).
 
  The problem identifying past accidents is the change over the years defining what is an "incident versus an "accident". Jim Oskins and I use the original DOD definition from 1957 which states in part-
 
"(6) Public Hazard, Actual or Implied. (Note: Accidents that involve  major mechanical damage  to the weapon without burning, explosion, or contamination are listed in this category)." 
 
Thus, while many weapons have been accidentally salvoed or dropped, the event may, or may not have damaged internal components (which require the weapon to be returned to the production agency for disassembly and repair, or retirement). The key phrase is "major mechanical damage", and is dependent on the weapon involved (for example, early large diameter bombs involved in accidents suffered internal damage from salvoes to include damage to the IFI mechanism, or extensive damage to the HE sphere, or a displaced secondary).

  Therefore, we have concluded after reviewing hundreds of incident reports (published in "Broken Arrow, Volume II- A Disclosure of Significant US, Soviet, and British Nuclear Weapon Incidents and Accidents, 1945-2008") that the accident list is near 66 for the US. The UK accident list is zero (counting UK weapons), and six accidents in the former Soviet Union (to include the four known submarine accidents).  Two US weapons, which were test duds, sat underground for years at the Nevada Test Site, and were not included in the DOD accident list (apparently since they were not DOD weapons). The Soviets also abandoned in place at least one unexploded warhead at the Semipalatinsk test site (the US and Soviet weapons were later destroyed). More information on these accidents is forthcoming.  
 
   In 1993, the US Navy declassified some aspects on the loss of the USS Scorpion, which sank on May 22, 1968 about 400 miles southwest of the Azores with two nuclear torpedoes. It should also be noted that weapons lost at sea pose no nuclear detonation hazard, since nuclear components exposed to saltwater deteriorate (in the case of plutonium, dissolve into a localized gelatinous sludge).
 
  In 1995, the Department of Energy released its list of "Unrecovered Nuclear Weapons and Classifed Components" which corrected some early discrepancies in the DOD accident list. Among these was a change in the location of the loss of a Mark 7 Betty bomb from a P-5 ASW aircraft in the Pacific, instead of Puget Sound. Also included was a narrative for the Scorpion accident. However, some discrepancies remain from the early accidents, for example, the statement that a B-36 crashed on Vancouver Island where the aircraft actually flew on another 200 miles after it's crew bailed out and crashed on Mt. Kologet in British Columbia. One of the reasons we published our first book was to correct these errors and dispel myths about purported accidents.   
 
  We have several unresolved dates for other Broken Arrows, and if the FOIA process is any indication, we will be waiting years for a response.

Excerpt from "Broken Arrow, Volume II" by Michael H. Maggelet and James C. Oskins
 
Table I
Additional U.S. Broken Arrows, 1945 to 1989
Accident/ Date              Event
 1.  1949-1953               Mk 4 bomb/Beta Crate/40 foot trailer
 2.  1951-1962               Mk 6 Beta Crate/40 foot trailer
 3.  1951-1962               Mk 6/C -124, weapon dropped
 4.  1951-1962               Mk 6/C-124, weapon dropped
 5.  Unknown date         Unknown bomb, accidentally salvoed
 6.  1952- Unknown location    Unknown bomb, accidentally salvoed
 7.  Mar 1956- Loring AFB, ME    Mark 17, accidentally salvoed
 8.  1956-1963               Mk 1 BOAR W7, impact damage
 9.  1957-1966               Mk 39 bomb/B-52, accidentally salvoed
10. 1957-1964               T-4 ADM, fire damage
11. July 19, 1957           Mk 15/A3D, weapon jettisoned
12. Feb 8, 1958              Mk 15/B-52, weapon salvoed
13. May 1958                 Mk 21/B-52 or B-47, weapon dropped
14. Apr 1960                  W-31/Honest John, warhead dropped
15. Jul 31, 1958             Possibly W7/AF Missile Dev Center
16. 1958-1967               Mk 28 bombs/At Sea, flood
17. Dec 13, 1960           Unknown weapon(s)/location
18. Oct 27, 1961 Italy   W49/Jupiter, tritium leak, Gioia del Colle
19. Nov 6, 1961             Plutonium Release/Pantex Plant
20. Jul 19, 1962             W49/Jupiter, lightning strike
21. Dec 15, 1962           Mk25/AIR-2A Genie/F-106
22. Mar 28, 1964           Mk 34 & Mk 57, flood
23. Nov 17, 1964           W28/Hound Dog/B-52G, frag damage
24. Jul 15, 1965             W28/Mace Missile, lightning strike
25. Jan 19, 1966            W45/Terrier, missile dropped
26. Feb 7, 1966              Mk 28FI, weapon dropped
27. Mar 25, 1967- DMZ Viet Nam    W44 ASROC/USS Ozbourn, fire
28. May 17, 1989           Unknown weapon + 9 pits, Pantex Plant, Amarillo, TX, tritium leak
 
 
Copyright 2008-2014 by Michael H. Maggelet and James C. Oskins.
 
 
 






Sunday, June 29, 2014

How to Become a Media Expert on Nuclear Weapons, Policy, and History!

by Michael H. Maggelet and James C. Oskins

  The internet and media swarms with nuclear weapons “experts”, many of whom don’t know the first thing about nuclear weapons, history, deployment, nor safety. Therefore, we've created a simple guide for investigative journalists, prospective authors, and other clueless individuals on how to become a media nuclear weapons expert in a few short months-

1. Have absolutely no background in the nuclear weapons field (this is an obvious first step in being anointed by the press as a nuclear weapons expert).


2. Create a Wikipedia entry promoting yourself as an expert on fast food, the porn industry, and yes, nuclear weapons.

3. Plaster your face all over the internet (see number 2).

4. Issue press releases announcing “shocking” new FOIA documents which have been uncovered through your “exclusive research” (even though they’ve been in the public domain for decades and printed in previous publications or books).

5. Distort the facts from declassified documents, stating the exact opposite of what is actually in the documents.  For example, claim that the B53 bomb was “unsafe”, or that the Mark 39 accident weapons at Goldsboro were “one step away from detonation” (knowledge of past accident history, weapons safety features, nuclear safety concepts, and the facts do not apply).

6. Claim that your “exhaustive research” shows beyond any reasonable doubt that nuclear weapons are unsafe, and could detonate from “stray voltage” and at any time (and could “incinerate” the state of Arkansas).

7. Maintain a blog, and delete posts or keep posts “awaiting moderation” for weeks or months if subject matter experts dispute your more enlightened claims of nuclear expertise and impending nuclear doom.

8. Use Left wing media and family connections to promote your new found expertise among celebrities and political activists (Hanoi Jane Fonda included). Demand that the US disarm now, since all nukes could explode near our major cities…

9. Team up with other newly crowned nuclear weapon history and policy experts and, with your vast knowledge and new found celebrity status and literary accolades, proclaim how much you “admire” those in the US military (while in Leftist media interviews bash them incessantly with absurd conspiracy theories about the "national security state" keeping nuclear weapons accidents and incidents "secret").

10. Ignore criticism by uneducated neo-Con revisionists and right wing pundits who conduct personal attacks against your enlightened and educated progressive colleagues (they are obviously war criminals, not to mention Yankee Air Pirates!).


11. And remember it is all about the money, not the facts.


 
Anti-US North Korean poster
 
 
 
"Citizens! Surrender your weapons" (USSR 1920)
 



Offensive and slanderous anti-Soviet propaganda-

"Wendy's Soviet Fashion Show"


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CaMUfxVJVQ


Even more offensive and exceedingly slanderous anti-Soviet propaganda!

"Reagan tells Soviet Jokes"